Credit-spread traders do not think in terms of short strikes. They think in terms of breakevens. If you sell an Iron Condor for $6.15 of credit, the position is net positive as long as the underlying settles inside the range defined by your short strikes shifted outward by that credit. The short strikes themselves are not where the P&L flips sign. The breakevens are.
Until this week, the SPX 0DTE Trade Bias Tracker was resolving outcomes using the short strikes, not the breakevens. That rule is simple to reason about, but it is not how defined-risk credit spreads actually settle. A trade that closed net positive on a per-contract basis could still be flagged LOSS in the tracker if the underlying drifted a small distance past a short strike by the close. The direction of the error was consistent: it under-reported wins.
We have updated the resolution logic to use credit-adjusted breakevens, and we have re-resolved every trade in the verification window under the corrected rule. This post walks through the change, shows the math on a real trade from yesterday, and explains which historical records are affected and which are not.
Worked example¶
Consider an Iron Condor sold for $6.15 credit with shorts at 7110 (put) and 7135 (call). Under the old rule, an SPX close at 7137.90 would be flagged LOSS because the call is $2.90 in-the-money. Under the corrected rule, we use credit-adjusted breakevens (7110 minus 6.15 equals 7103.85 below, 7135 plus 6.15 equals 7141.15 above). Net P&L equals 6.15 minus 2.90, or plus $3.25 per contract, a WIN.
This is a real mislabeled trade from 2026-04-22. It is one of six Iron Condors reclassified in this correction.
What changed¶
- Resolution rule. Outcome is now determined by whether the underlying settles inside the credit-adjusted breakeven range, not inside the short strikes. The same rule applies to put credit spreads, call credit spreads, and long butterflies. Butterflies were already using the correct rule; only credit spreads and Iron Condors were affected.
- Re-resolution scope. Effective 2026-04-23, all trades going forward and all 151 trades with credit data on file have been re-resolved under the new rule.
- Reclassifications. Six Iron Condors moved from LOSS to WIN. No WIN moved to LOSS. The tracker win rate has been revised upward as a result.
- Pre-verification period. 127 trades from October and November 2025 do not carry the credit field needed for the corrected formula. They are retained on disk for audit purposes, labeled “pre-verification period,” and excluded from the headline rate.
- Audit trail. The prior
alert_history.jsonhas been backed up with timestamp. A diff report listing every reclassified row is written to disk alongside the backup. - Forward-only for channels. Original Discord and Telegram recap posts remain in channel history as first issued. We are not rewriting past channel messages. The tracker page is the canonical record.
- Compliance parity. The Telegram recap now carries the same “hypothetical, based on signal tracking” qualifier the Discord recap has always carried.
How to verify¶
Open the Trade Bias Tracker. The headline now reads “Win Rate (credit-adjusted).” The pre-verification bucket appears below the 6-month performance chart as a collapsed section; the count is 127. The full per-trade table still shows every alert, with Win / Loss / TBD values derived from credit-adjusted P&L.
If you want to reproduce the math on any row, take the short strike, add or subtract the credit, and compare to the close. If the close is inside the credit-adjusted range, the trade is a win. If outside, the trade is a loss whose magnitude is capped at the spread width minus credit.
Informational only. Not investment advice. Not a solicitation to trade. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Consult a licensed professional before trading.